Inganda zikora ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi n'amashanyarazi ku isi zinjira mu cyiciro cy'impinduka zikomeye mu 2026. Impinduka mu ngufu zivugururwa no kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi biri gutuma habaho impinduka zikomeye mu miterere y'inganda. Uru rwego rwungukira mu iterambere rikomeye, riterwa inkunga n'ikoreshwa ry'ingufu zisukuye n'izamuka ry'ibiciro by'amashanyarazi. Nyamara kandi ruhura n'imbogamizi ziyongera, zirimo inzitizi ku mikorere y'uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa, impinduka mu mategeko, n'impinduka mu ikoranabuhanga ryihuse. Ishingiye kuri Raporo ya IEA Electricity 2026 iheruka, amakuru ku rwego rw'isi ku bijyanye na gasutamo, n'iterambere riherutse kugerwaho mu nganda, iyi raporo isuzuma ibintu by'ingenzi bigezweho, imbogamizi z'ingenzi, n'icyerekezo cy'ejo hazaza h'inganda muri uyu mwaka.
Ubushobozi bwo kongera gukoreshwa butuma ibikoresho birushaho kuzamuka, bugatuma habaho kuvugurura ibikoresho byo mu rwego rwo hejuru.
Umwaka wa 2026 ni umwaka w'amateka ku mvange y'ingufu ku isi: ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa zarenze ku mugaragaro amakara nk'isoko y'amashanyarazi nini ku isi, birangira amakara amaze hafi ikinyejana kinini ari ku isi, nk'uko IEA ibivuga. Ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba n'umuyaga ubu bingana na 20% by'ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ku isi. Ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ni zo ziyongera cyane, aho ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba mu 2025 zigera kuri 620 TWh - zazamutse cyane zivuye kuri 450 TWh mu 2024. Biteganijwe ko zizarenga umuyaga, ingufu za kirimbuzi n'amazi vuba aha.
Uku kwaguka kwihuta kw'amashanyarazi ashobora kongera gukoreshwa birimo gutera imbere mu rwego rw'ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi, birenga ibisabwa by'ibanze bikagera ku bisubizo bifatika kandi by'ubwenge. Ibikoresho byo kohereza ingufu zikoresha ingufu zidasanzwe (HVDC) bikemuye ibyo ingufu zikenera mu gihe cy'intera ndende kandi zitakaza igihombo kinini. Isoko ryabyo ku isi ryariyongereyeho 25% mu 2026. Inverters zigezweho—zifite uburyo bwo kugenzura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi hamwe n'uburyo bwo kubika ingufu—ubu ni zo zisanzwe mu mishinga mishya y'izuba n'umuyaga. Ikigaragara ni uko ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga bya UHV mu Bushinwa n'ibikoresho byo kohereza ingufu bihindagurika byazamutseho 81.5% ugereranyije n'umwaka mu mezi abiri ya mbere ya 2026, bikaba ari byo biyoboye uruhererekane rw'ibikoresho byo kohereza ingufu ku rwego rwo hejuru ku isi.
Ubwiyongere bw'ubusabe burambye bushyira imbaraga mu guhangana n'uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa
Ubukene bw'amashanyarazi ku isi burimo kwiyongera cyane, buzamukaho 3.7% mu 2026—hafi inshuro 2.5 z'umuvuduko w'izamuka ry'ingufu muri rusange. IEA ivuga ko amashanyarazi mu nganda, kwaguka kw'ibigo by'ikoranabuhanga bya AI, kwiyongera k'ikwirakwizwa ry'amashanyarazi ya EV, no kwiyongera k'ubukonje bw'impeshyi nk'ibintu by'ingenzi. Ubukungu buri mu nzira y'amajyambere buzagira uruhare runini kuri hafi 80% by'ubukene bushya bw'amashanyarazi ku isi mu 2030. Ubukungu bwateye imbere nabwo burimo kubona ko ikoreshwa ry'amashanyarazi rizongera kuzamuka, aho AI n'inganda zigezweho ari moteri nshya zikura.
Ubu busabe buhoraho bwatumye ibikoresho by'ingenzi bigabanuka. Transformateur, switchgear, n'insinga zifite voltage nyinshi ziracyari nke, aho igihe cyo gutanga ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe by'ingenzi kigera ku mezi 8-12. Inganda zirimo kongera ubushobozi ariko zihura n'imbogamizi: ibiciro by'umuringa na aluminiyumu birahindagurika hejuru ya 20% buri mwaka, kandi hari igihe habaho ihungabana ry'ibicuruzwa. Kugira ngo bihuzwe n'ibyo, amasosiyete menshi arimo kwihutisha imiterere itandukanye ya "China+N". Barimo kwimura umusaruro umwe muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba mu gihe bongera imbaraga mu ruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa by'ingenzi mu Bushinwa kugira ngo bagabanye ibyago bya politiki n'isoko. Isoko ry'ibikoresho byo kohereza no gukwirakwiza ingufu mu 2026 ku isi rifite agaciro ka miliyari 142.8 z'amadolari y'Amerika, aho transformateur zigize 38.2% - bigaragaza uruhare rwabo rw'ingenzi.
Ikigaragara ni uko ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi byoherezwa mu Bushinwa byazamutse buhoro buhoro mu myaka itatu yikurikiranya. Ibicuruzwa byoherejwe mu 2025 byageze kuri miliyari 374 z'amadolari y'Amerika (hafi tiriyari 2.6 z'amayuan), 26% byiyongereyeho umwaka ushize—10.4% by'izamuka ry'ibiciro ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize. Transformers ziyoboye iterambere, zigize hafi 41% by'ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byose. Iyi ntambwe ijyanye na politiki y'Ubushinwa yo mu myaka itatu yo gushimangira urwego, igamije kwiyongera kwa 6% by'amafaranga yinjira ku bikoresho by'amashanyarazi bisanzwe mu 2026.
Ubucuruzi bwo kubika bateri burakura, butuma ikoranabuhanga rirushaho gukomera
Igabanuka ry'ibiciro byo kubika bateri ryatumye byihutishwa mu buryo bw'amashanyarazi. Nyuma y'igabanuka rya 27% ry'umwaka ugereranyije n'umwaka mu 2025, ikiguzi cyo kubika amasaha ane cyahagaze kuri $78-80/MWh mu 2026. Ibiciro bya bateri ku rwego rw'ibicuruzwa biri hafi $80/kWh - hafi 50% munsi y'uko byari bimeze mu 2023. Iyi nyungu y'igiciro ituma uburyo bwo kubika bateri (BESS) buhangana n'inganda zikora gaze mu masoko menshi, bigatuma ubushobozi bwo kubika imirasire y'izuba ku isi buzamuka cyane.
Iterambere mu ikoranabuhanga ririmo kwagura uburyo bwo kubika bateri. Bateri za Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) zirakoreshwa cyane, bikongera ubucucike bw'ingufu n'imikorere myiza yo guhuza. Hari kandi icyifuzo cy'ibikoresho bishyigikira: sisitemu zo gucunga bateri (BMS), uburyo bwo kugenzura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi, n'ibikoresho byo kugenzura inshuro. Ibi ni ingenzi mu gukemura ikibazo cy'ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa no guhinduka kwazo. Muri 2026, ikoranabuhanga rya bateri zigenda amazi naryo ririmo gutera imbere cyane, aho iterambere mu bikoresho bya electrode na formula za electrolyte bigabanya ikiguzi kandi bikongera ubusugire—bishyigikira ububiko bw'igihe kirekire kugira ngo habeho guhuza ku rwego runini. IEA ishimangira ko ububiko bwa bateri, hamwe no kuvugurura urubuga rw'amashanyarazi, bizafungura ubushobozi bwose bw'ibikoresho bishobora kuvugururwa, hamwe n'ubushobozi bwo kubika ku isi bugiye kwaguka cyane kugira ngo bugere ku ntego yo mu 2030 y'ingufu nke zihumanya ikirere 50%.
Imiterere y'Akarere iratandukanye, aho abashoramari bo muri Aziya ari bo bayoboye inzira
Isoko ry’ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi ku isi rya 2026 rigaragaza itandukaniro rigaragara mu karere. Aziya ikomeje kuba ingenzi mu gutanga no gukenera ibikoresho: Ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa byazamutseho 32.7% ugereranyije n’umwaka mu mezi abiri ya mbere. Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, Amerika ya Ruguru, n’Uburayi bifite icyifuzo gikomeye cy’ibikoresho bifite voltage nke na transformers. Ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi byoherezwa mu Buyapani byazamutseho 11.3% ugereranyije n’umwaka, bitewe n’ibikoresho bifitanye isano na semiconductor, aho ibicuruzwa byinshi byoherezwa muri Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’Uburasirazuba (Maleziya, Viyetinamu).
Mu Burayi, gahunda ya "Fit for 55" y’Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi irimo kwihutisha irangira ry’ingufu zikoresha amakara, yongera ibyifuzo by’ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga bigezweho n’ububiko bw’ingufu. Isoko ry’amashanyarazi mu karere rituma habaho ibyifuzo: Ibihugu 9 by’i Burayi byagurishije imodoka nshya 207.000 zikoresha ingufu muri Mutarama 2026, ubwiyongere bwa 23.1% ugereranyije n’umwaka, hamwe n’igipimo cyo kwinjiramo cya 29.5%. Ubudage, Ubufaransa, Ubutaliyani, na Esipanye byongereye cyangwa byazamuye inkunga y’amashanyarazi, bikomeza gushishikariza ibikorwa remezo byo kwishyuza no gushyigikira ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi.
Muri Amerika ya Ruguru, Amerika ni yo iyoboye ibikorwa byo kubika bateri ku isi bitewe n'inguzanyo y'ishoramari (ITC). Ariko, amategeko yo gushyira mu bikorwa ibyo bikorwa n'amabwiriza y'ubucuruzi byongera ikiguzi cy'ibikoresho. Abakora ibikorwa bitatu bikomeye byo mu karere muri Amerika bemerewe kwagura imiyoboro ya amashanyarazi ya miliyari 75 z'amadolari. Bazubaka imiyoboro ya 765kV ifite ingufu nyinshi, ikagera kuri kilometero 10.000 - inshuro enye z'ubushobozi bw'amashanyarazi. Ibi bikemura ibibazo by'ibikorwa remezo bishaje: 70% by'imashini zihindura amashanyarazi n'imiyoboro ya amashanyarazi bifite imyaka irenga 25, naho 60% by'imashini zigabanya amashanyarazi zifite ingufu zirenga 30. Hagati aho, ikoreshwa ry'amashanyarazi ya AI - riteganijwe kugera kuri 6.7%-12.0% by'amashanyarazi yo muri Amerika mu 2028 - ririmo guteza imbere iterambere ry'imiyoboro ya amashanyarazi n'ubukene bw'ibikoresho, aho 800VDC n'ubukonje bw'amazi ari byo ikoranabuhanga ry'ingenzi.
Amasoko ari kuzamuka mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya na Afurika ni inkingi nshya z'iterambere. Iterambere ry'imijyi n'amashanyarazi bituma hakenerwa ibikoresho by'ibanze byo kohereza no gukwirakwiza ibikoresho. Ariko, ishoramari rihagije ry'amashanyarazi n'ubushobozi buke bwa tekiniki bigabanya iterambere.
Icyerekezo cy'igihe kirekire: Ishoramari mu ikoranabuhanga n'udushya bitera iterambere rirambye
IEA iteganya ko ingufu zihumanya ikirere nke—ziyobowe n’ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa n’iza kirimbuzi—zizagera kuri 50% by’ingufu zikoreshwa ku isi mu 2030, zivuye kuri 42% muri 2025. Ibi bisaba ko ishoramari rya buri mwaka ku isi rizamukaho 50%, ugereranyije na miliyari 400 z’amadolari ubu. Bizatuma habaho gukenera ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi bigezweho, byujuje ibisabwa, kandi bigezweho mu nzego z’imiturire, ubucuruzi n’inganda. Ikibazo gikomeye kiracyari: kubaka imiyoboro y’amashanyarazi biri inyuma y’iterambere ry’isoko ry’amashanyarazi, aho imishinga irenga 250 GW y’ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa, ububiko bw’ingufu, n’ibigo by’amakuru itegereje guhuzwa ku isi hose.
Udushya mu ikoranabuhanga tuzaba ingenzi mu kugabanya ingorane. Gukoresha ikoranabuhanga, ubwenge, no gukoresha ibidukikije ni byo bintu by'ingenzi mu kuvugurura ibikoresho. Ikoranabuhanga rya "smart grid", ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga, n'ibikoresho bitagira karuboni bizakoreshwa cyane. Kubahiriza amabwiriza agenga ingufu zikoreshwa ku isi n'ibyuka bihumanya ikirere nabyo bizaba ngombwa mu kugera ku isoko. Ibi bitera amasosiyete kwihutisha inganda zikora ibidukikije no kubaka uburyo bwo kubara ibidukikije. Inkunga y'Ubushinwa mu bijyanye na politiki—harimo inganda n'ingufu—nabyo bishyigikira iterambere ry'inganda ku isi.
Urufunguzo rwo gufata
Umwaka wa 2026 ni umwaka w'ingenzi ku nganda zikora ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi n'amashanyarazi ku isi. Impinduka zivugururwa zirakuze, kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi biri kwihuta, kandi isoko ririmo kwaguka buhoro buhoro. Nyamara guhangana n'uruhererekane rw'ibikoresho, ivugurura ry'ikoranabuhanga, no kubahiriza amategeko ni imbogamizi zikomeye. Ku batanga ibikoresho, intsinzi iterwa no gukoresha amahirwe yo guhuza ibikoresho, kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi, no kwamamaza mu bubiko bw'amabateri—mu gihe bongera ubushobozi bwo guhindura imiterere y'ibikoresho no guhanga udushya. Inganda zirimo zigana ahazaza heza, heza kandi harambye, hashyigikiwe n'intego z'impinduka ku rwego rw'isi mu bijyanye n'ingufu.
Isoko: Raporo ya IEA Electricity 2026, Imibare Mpuzamahanga y'Ubucuruzi bwa Gasutamo, Ubushakashatsi ku Nganda, n'Amakuru Agezweho ku Isoko (Werurwe 2026); Minisiteri y'Inganda n'Ikoranabuhanga mu Itangazamakuru mu Bushinwa; Inzego z'Ubushakashatsi ku Nganda
Igihe cyo kohereza ubutumwa: Werurwe-24-2026
