Mu gihe inganda z'amashanyarazi n'ingufu ku isi zinjira mu mwaka w'ingenzi wa2026, impinduka mu miterere y’ingufu zikomoka ku ihindagurika ry’ingufu zisubiramo no kuvugurura imiyoboro y’amashanyarazi zikomeje kwiyongera. Nubwo uru rwego rufite umuvuduko mu iterambere riterwa no gukoresha ingufu zisukuye no kwiyongera k’ubukene bw’amashanyarazi, runahura n’imbogamizi ziterwa n’imbogamizi z’uruhererekane rw’ibicuruzwa, impinduka mu mategeko n’ikoranabuhanga. Dushingiye ku makuru aheruka kuva muri Raporo ya IEA Electricity 2026, imibare mpuzamahanga y’ubucuruzi bwa gasutamo n’ubushakashatsi ku nganda, iyi nkuru irasuzuma uburyo bushya bwo kuvugurura imikorere,Ibibazo by'ingenzi n'icyerekezo cy'ejo hazazagushyiraho uburyo bwo kuvugurura inganda muri 2026.
1. Ingufu Zishobora Kuvugururwa Zirahuza, Zigatuma Hakenerwa Ivugurura ry'Ibikoresho Bigezweho
2026 ni igihe cy'impinduka mu mateka ku mvange y'ingufu ku isi: ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa zarenze ku mugaragaro amakara nk'isoko y'amashanyarazi nini ku isi, birangira amakara amaze hafi ikinyejana kinini nk'uko byateganijwe na IEA. Ingufu za PV zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba n'umuyaga hamwe bingana na 20% by'ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ku isi, aho PV zikomoka ku mirasire y'izuba ari zo ziyongera cyane—ingufu zazo za buri mwaka zageze kuri 620 TWh mu 2025, izamuka rikomeye rivuye kuri 450 TWh mu 2024, kandi byitezwe ko zizarenga umuyaga, ingufu za kirimbuzi n'amazi mu gihe cya vuba. Uku kwaguka kwihuta ntabwo kuzongera kugarukira ku bikenewe by'ibanze mu bikoresho; ahubwo, biri gutuma habaho iterambere mu rwego rw'ibikoresho by'ingufu.
Mu gihe cy’ihuzwa rikomeye ry’ibikoresho bishobora kongera gukoreshwa, icyifuzo cy’ibikoresho bifite imikorere myiza kandi by’ubwenge kiri kwiyongera cyane. Ibikoresho byo kohereza ingufu zisubiramo bifite ingufu nyinshi (HVDC), bikemurira ikibazo cyo kohereza ingufu zisubiramo mu ntera ndende kandi zitagabanyije igihombo, byagaragaye ko isoko ry’isi ryiyongeraho 25% mu 2026. Hagati aho, inverters zigezweho zifite ubushobozi bwo kugenzura imiyoboro y’amashanyarazi hamwe n’imikorere yo kubika ingufu zabaye imiterere isanzwe y’imishinga mishya y’izuba n’umuyaga. Ikigaragara ni uko ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga bya UHV n’ibikoresho byo kohereza ingufu bya DC byoherejwe mu Bushinwa byiyongereyeho 81.5% ugereranyije n’umwaka mu mezi abiri ya mbere ya 2026, bikaba ari byo biyoboye uruhererekane rw’ibikoresho byo ku rwego rwo hejuru ku isi.
2. Ubwiyongere bw'ibikenewe bukomeje kwiyongera, kwihangana mu ruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa biba ingenzi mu guhangana
Ubukene bw'amashanyarazi ku isi bukomeje kwiyongera cyane, buzamukaho 3.7% mu 2026—hafi inshuro 2.5 z'umuvuduko w'ingufu muri rusange—biterwa no gukoresha amashanyarazi mu nganda, kwagura ikigo cy'amakuru cya AI, kwinjira mu ikoranabuhanga rya EV no kwiyongera kw'umuvuduko w'ubukonje mu mpeshyi. Ubukungu buri mu nzira y'amajyambere bukomeje kuba moteri nyamukuru y'iterambere, butanga hafi 80% by'ubukene bushya bw'amashanyarazi ku isi mu 2030, mu gihe ubukungu bwateye imbere nabwo burimo kuzamuka mu ikoreshwa ry'amashanyarazi, aho AI n'inganda zikora ku rwego rwo hejuru ari byo bitera iterambere rishya.
Uku kwiyongera gukomeye kw'ibikenewe byarushijeho gukaza uburyo ibikoresho by'ingenzi bitangwa. Transformers, switchgear n'insinga zifite voltage nyinshi ziracyari nke, aho igihe cyo kwishyura ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe by'ingenzi kigera ku mezi 8-12. Inganda ziyongera ubushobozi bwo gukora, ariko zihura n'imbogamizi ziterwa n'ihindagurika ry'ibiciro by'ibikoresho fatizo—ibiciro by'umuringa na aluminiyumu byagiye bihindagurikaho birenga 20% buri mwaka—n'ihungabana ry'ibicuruzwa rimwe na rimwe. Kugira ngo ibi bikemuke, ibigo byinshi birimo kwihutisha imiterere itandukanye ya "China+N", byimurira igice cy'ubushobozi bwo gukora muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba mu gihe bihuza uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa mu Bushinwa, kugira ngo byongere ubushobozi bwo guhangana n'ingaruka za politiki n'iz'isoko. Isoko ry'ibikoresho byo kohereza no gukwirakwiza ingufu z'amashanyarazi ku isi rifite agaciro ka miliyari 142.8 z'amadolari y'Amerika mu 2026, aho transformers zifite 38.2% by'isoko, bigaragaza umwanya w'ingenzi w'ibice by'ingenzi mu nganda.
3. Kubika batiri bikura mu bucuruzi, bikaba inkingi y'ingenzi yo guhindura imiterere y'urukuta
Igabanuka rikomeje ry’ibiciro byo kubika bateri ryatumye byihutishwa mu buryo bw’amashanyarazi. Nyuma y’igabanuka rya 27% ry’umwaka ugereranyije n’umwaka mu 2025, ibiciro byo kubika bateri amasaha ane byahagaze ku madolari agera kuri 78-80/MWh mu 2026, aho ibiciro bya bateri ku gipimo cy’amashanyarazi bigera kuri 80/kWh - hafi 50% munsi y’uko byari bimeze mu 2023. Iri zamuka ry’ibiciro ryatumye sisitemu zo kubika ingufu za bateri (BESS) zihangana n’inganda zikora gaze mu masoko menshi, bituma ubushobozi bwo kubika ingufu z’izuba ku isi bukomeza kwiyongera cyane.
Uretse kugabanuka kw'ibiciro, iterambere ry'ikoranabuhanga ririmo kwagura uburyo bwo kubika bateri. Ikoranabuhanga rya bateri rya Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) ryakoreshejwe cyane, rituma ingufu ziyongera kandi rigatuma habaho imikorere myiza. Hagati aho, icyifuzo cy'ibikoresho bishyigikira nka sisitemu zo gucunga bateri (BMS), uburyo bwo kugenzura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi n'ibikoresho byo kugenzura inshuro biri kwiyongera cyane, kuko ari ingenzi mu gukemura ikibazo cy'ihindagurika ry'ingufu zikomoka ku miyoboro y'amashanyarazi. IEA igaragaza ko kubika bateri, hamwe no kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi, bizaba urufunguzo rwo gufungura ubushobozi bwose bw'ingufu zikomoka ku miyoboro y'amashanyarazi, aho ubushobozi bwo kubika ku isi buteganijwe kwiyongera cyane kugira ngo bushyigikire intego y'ingufu nke zituruka ku byuka bihumanya ikirere ku kigero cya 50% bitarenze umwaka wa 2030.
4. Imiterere y'Akarere iratandukanye, Abashoramari bo mu bihugu byo muri Aziya bakomeza kuba ingenzi
Isoko ry’ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi ku isi ryagaragaje itandukaniro ridasanzwe mu karere muri 2026. Aziya iracyari inkingi y’isoko ry’ibicuruzwa n’ibikenewe ku isi: Ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa byazamutseho 32.7% ugereranyije n’umwaka mu mezi abiri ya mbere, aho hakenewe cyane ibikoresho bifite voltage nke na transformers mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, Amerika ya Ruguru n’i Burayi. Ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi byoherezwa mu Buyapani nabyo byazamutseho 11.3% ugereranyije n’umwaka, bitewe n’ibikoresho bifitanye isano na semiconductor, aho ibicuruzwa byayo byoherejwe cyane mu bihugu byo muri Aziya y’Amajyepfo y’uburasirazuba nka Tayiwani, Maleziya na Vietnam.
Mu Burayi no muri Amerika ya Ruguru, kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi no gukoresha ingufu zisubiramo ni byo bintu by'ingenzi bituma ibikoresho bikenerwa. Gahunda y'Umuryango w'Ubumwe bw'u Burayi yitwa "Fit for 55" yihutishije ihagarikwa ry'ingufu zikoresha amakara, yongera ibyifuzo by'ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi bigezweho n'uburyo bwo kubika ingufu. Amerika yungukira muri gahunda y'ishoramari (ITC) n'ibindi bijyanye nayo, iyoboye ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry'ububiko bw'amabateri ku isi, ariko ihanganye n'ibiciro by'ibikoresho biri hejuru bitewe n'amabwiriza yo gushyira ibikoresho mu gace runaka ndetse n'amabwiriza y'ubucuruzi. Amasoko ari kuzamuka mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya na Afurika arimo kuba inkingi nshya z'iterambere, aho izamuka ry'ibiciro by'ibikoresho by'ibanze byo kohereza no gukwirakwiza amashanyarazi riterwa no kwiyongera kw'imijyi n'amashanyarazi, ariko bigabanywa n'ishoramari rito ry'amashanyarazi n'ubushobozi bwa tekiniki.
5. Icyerekezo cy'igihe kirekire: Ishoramari mu miyoboro y'amashanyarazi n'udushya mu ikoranabuhanga bitera iterambere rirambye
IEA iteganya ko ingufu zihumanya ikirere nke—ziyobowe n’ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa n’iza kirimbuzi—zizaba 50% by’ingufu zikomoka ku isi mu 2030, zivuye kuri 42% mu 2025, ibyo bikaba bisaba ko ishoramari mpuzamahanga ku muyoboro w’amashanyarazi ryiyongeraho 50% ugereranije n’urwego rwa miliyari 400 z’amadolari buri mwaka. Iri shoramari rinini rizatuma habaho gukenera ibikoresho by’amashanyarazi binoze, byujuje ibisabwa kandi bigezweho mu nzego z’imiturire, ubucuruzi n’inganda. Ariko, inganda nazo zihanganye n’imbogamizi: kubaka umuyoboro w’amashanyarazi biri inyuma y’iterambere ry’isoko ry’amashanyarazi, aho imishinga irenga 250 GW y’ingufu zishobora kongera gukoreshwa, ububiko bw’ingufu n’amakuru itegereje guhuzwa n’umuyoboro w’amashanyarazi ku isi.
Urebye imbere, guhanga udushya mu ikoranabuhanga bizaba urufunguzo rwo guca mu mbogamizi. Gukoresha ikoranabuhanga, ubwenge no kurengera ibidukikije bizaba inzira nyamukuru yo kuvugurura ibikoresho—ikoranabuhanga rigezweho, ibikoresho by’ikoranabuhanga n’ibikoresho bitagira karuboni bizakoreshwa cyane. Hagati aho, kubahiriza amahame ngenderwaho ku isi mu gukoresha neza ingufu n’amabwiriza agenga imyuka ihumanya ikirere bizaba ngombwa kugira ngo isoko rigere ku isoko, bitume ibigo byihutisha impinduka mu nganda ziteza imbere ibidukikije no kubaka sisitemu yo kubara ibidukikije.
Urufunguzo rwo gufata
Umwaka wa 2026 ni umwaka w'ingenzi ku nganda zikora ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi n'ingufu ku isi: impinduka mu ngufu zisubira inyuma zinjiye mu cyiciro cyo hejuru, kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi biri kwihuta, kandi isoko ririmo kwaguka buhoro buhoro, ariko guhangana n'uruhererekane rw'ibikoresho, ivugurura ry'ikoranabuhanga n'iyubahirizwa ry'amategeko byabaye imbogamizi zikomeye. Ku batanga ibikoresho, gukoresha amahirwe azanwa no guhuza ingufu zisubira inyuma, kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi no kwamamaza mu bubiko bw'amabateri, mu gihe hongerwa ubushobozi bwo guhindura imikorere y'ibikoresho n'udushya mu ikoranabuhanga, bizaba ingenzi mu gufata isoko. Inganda zirimo zigana ahazaza heza, heza kandi harambye, hamwe n'iterambere ry'igihe kirekire rishyigikiwe cyane n'intego z'impinduka ku rwego rw'isi mu bijyanye n'ingufu.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Werurwe-19-2026
