Inganda z'amashanyarazi n'amashanyarazi ku isi: Ibikoresho bivugururwa bitera iterambere hagati yo kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi

Inzira z'ingenzi z'inganda (2025-2026)

Urwego rw'amashanyarazi n'ingufu ku isi rurimo guhinduka mu miterere yarwo, ruyobowe no gukoresha ingufu zisubira, amashanyarazi arushaho kwiyongera ndetse no kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi. Hashingiwe ku makuru yemewe, hepfo hari ibintu bishobora gukorwa kandi bishingiye ku kuri bihindura isoko.

1. Ibishobora kuvugururwa birenga amakara nk'isoko y'ingufu ikomeye mu 2026

Nk’uko raporo ya IEA ivuga ku bijyanye n’amashanyarazi yo mu 2026 ivuga, ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa zizasimbura amakara nk’isoko y’amashanyarazi nini ku isi mu 2026—ikarangiza imyaka hafi 100 yari imaze igabanutse. PV y’izuba n’umuyaga bizaba bigize 20% by’ingufu zikomoka ku mirasire y’izuba ku isi mu 2026 (zivuye kuri 15% mu 2024), aho PV y’izuba izarusha ingufu z’umuyaga, za kirimbuzi n’iz’amazi mu myaka iri imbere. Iri hinduka ririmo kuzamura icyifuzo cy’imashini zihindura amashanyarazi za PV, transfoma, ibikoresho bifite amashanyarazi menshi n’ibikoresho byo gukwirakwiza.

2. Izamuka ry'ubukene bw'amashanyarazi rituma habaho gukaza ubwinshi bw'ibice bitanga amashanyarazi

Ubushyuhe bw'amashanyarazi ku isi buzazamukaho 3.3% (2025) na 3.7% (2026), bikuba kabiri umuvuduko w'izamuka ry'ingufu muri rusange, bitewe n'amashanyarazi mu nganda (60% aturuka muri Aziya), kwagura ikigo cy'amakuru/ikoranabuhanga rya mudasobwa (AI) no gukoresha amashanyarazi ya elegitoroniki. Uku kwiyongera kw'amashanyarazi kwatumye habaho amashanyarazi make ku bice by'ingenzi: transformers, switchgear, circuit breakers na cables, bituma abakora amashanyarazi bongera umusaruro.

3. Ikiguzi cyo kubika batiri kiragabanuka, kongera ubwiyongere bw'urukuta

Amakuru ya BloombergNEF agaragaza ko ikiguzi cyo kubika bateri mu masaha ane cyagabanutseho 27% ku mwaka kigera kuri $78/MWh mu 2025 (icyari gito cyane), bituma 87GW y’ubushobozi bwo kubika imirasire y’izuba ku isi yongeraho umwaka ushize. Igabanuka ry’ibiciro riri gutuma hakenerwa uburyo bwo kugenzura imiyoboro y’amashanyarazi, sisitemu zo gucunga bateri (BMS) n’ibikoresho bihamye kugira ngo bishyigikire uburyo bwo kongera gukoreshwa.

4. Abashoramari bo mu bihugu by'Aziya bayoboye iterambere ry'uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa ku isi

Amakuru ya gasutamo yo mu ntangiriro za 2026 agaragaza ko ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi byoherezwa mu mahanga bikomeye bivuye muri Aziya: Ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi byoherezwa mu Bushinwa byazamutseho 32.7% mu mwaka wa mbere (Mutarama-Gashyantare), aho UHV na DC transmission gear byazamutseho 81.5%. Ubukene ku isi hose bw'ibikoresho bifite voltage nke na transformers zikwirakwiza ibicuruzwa biracyari byinshi mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, Amerika ya Ruguru n'Uburayi, hamwe n'ibiciro byoroheje by'ibikoresho fatizo n'ibikoresho byo gutwara ibintu.

5. Iteganyagihe Rirambye: Ishoramari mu miyoboro y'amashanyarazi rigamije gutera inkunga iterambere rirambye

IEA iteganya ko ingufu zihumanya ikirere nke zizagera kuri 50% by'amashanyarazi ku isi mu 2030 (zivuye kuri 42% muri 2025), bisaba ishoramari rinini ry'amashanyarazi n'ububiko. Ibi bituma hakenerwa ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi binoze kandi byujuje ibisabwa mu ngo, mu bucuruzi no mu nganda.

Ingingo y'ingenzi: Urwego rw'ibikoresho by'amashanyarazi rwiteguye gukura mu buryo burambye mu 2026, bitewe n'impinduka zishobora kongera gukoreshwa no kuvugurura imiyoboro y'amashanyarazi. Abatanga serivisi bibanda ku bisubizo bigezweho, by'ubwenge kandi birambye bazakuramo amahirwe menshi ku isoko.
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Mu buryo burambuye, amakuru yose aturuka muri Raporo ya IEA Electricity 2026 ndetse n'amakuru ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga ku misoro.